Evidence-first deskIt is a paper account
Outcomes are measured against modelled fills, not executed orders. Real execution on a real account will differ, sometimes badly.
The record
No figures yet, and no stand-ins
We have not published performance figures. When we do, they will be computed from the setups we actually published, with the sample size beside every number. Until then this page sets out how results are kept, how they will be measured, and what they cannot tell you.
What gets recorded
Every setup, in every state
A setup is published with its entry zone, invalidation, and targets before it can trigger, then moves through these states in the open. The rows below illustrate the states; they are not results.
- 01ETHUSDTlongformingLevels timestamped, waiting for the entry zone
- 02SOLUSDTshortactiveEntry filled; stop and targets as published
- 03BTCUSDTlongclosedSettled at the price it actually exited
- 04LINKUSDTlonginvalidatedStop taken, or the thesis broke before entry
- 05SUIUSDTshortexpiredWindow closed unfilled; reported separately
Once published, a setup stays in the queue in whatever state it ends in — including the ones that lose.
Methodology
How each figure will be computed
- R multiple
- Outcome divided by the risk defined on the ticket at publication. A stop taken at the published invalidation is exactly −1R.
- Hit rate
- Setups that reached at least the first target, divided by setups that triggered. Expired setups are excluded from the denominator and reported separately.
- Expectancy
- Mean R across all triggered setups, winners and losers together, with no survivorship filter applied.
- Drawdown
- Largest peak-to-trough decline of the cumulative R curve, measured on closed setups only.
Limits
What a record cannot tell you
A short record is a small sample
A few hundred setups is enough to see a tendency and nowhere near enough to prove an edge. Any figure published here will carry its sample size for that reason.
One market regime
The record covers the conditions that happened to occur, not the ones that did not. A method that survived this year has not been tested against every year.
Your results will not match
Position size, entry discipline, and which setups you choose to take dominate the outcome. The record measures the research, not your trading.
Judge the method, not a number
Read how a setup is built, or tour the demo desk on sample data before choosing a plan.